Weekly Market Insights: Despite A Shaky Week, Stock End On A High Note

Margie Mitchell

October 11, 2023

Despite a shaky week, stocks managed to end on a high note with a rally on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight dip of 0.30% for the week, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 saw a gain of 0.48% and the Nasdaq Composite index added 1.60% over the five trading days. However, the MSCI EAFE index, which tracks the performance of developed overseas stock markets, fell by 2.37%.

Friday Rally

On Friday, the stock market experienced a surge after an employment report showed better results than anticipated by Wall Street. Initially, the increase in September payrolls caused concerns about possible Fed rate hikes, resulting in a rise in bond yields and significant early morning losses. However, a decrease in yields may have led to the change in the market's direction as investors focused on the month's moderate wage growth.
Throughout last week, stocks were unstable due to the escalating bond yields. When the Treasury yields hit their highest point since 2007 on Tuesday, stock prices plummeted, causing the Dow Industrials to end up in negative territory for the year. A surprising finding of nearly one million more available jobs than expected in the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) was the catalyst for the interest rates spike that day.

All About Jobs

The job market has shown great resilience. According to August JOLTS, job openings were over 9.6 million, surpassing the expected 8.8 million. A recent report on weak Automated Data Processing (ADP) private payroll job growth, which was released on Wednesday, showed only 89,000 new private sector jobs. This figure appears to be an outlier when compared to other reports.
However, Friday's monthly employment report revealed a robust gain of 336,000 new jobs, nearly double the forecast of 170,000. Additionally, the previous two months saw significant upward revisions of 119,000 combined from initial reports. Although wage gains rose modestly and came in below expectations, it's a hopeful sign on inflation.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, October 6, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Friday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH), Citigroup, Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

^{Source: Zacks, October 6, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

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Food For Thought

"To conceal anything from those to whom I am attached, is not in my nature. I can never close my lips where I have opened my heart."

–Charles Dickens

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Tax Tip

When Was the Last Time You Checked Your Withholding Status?

Managing your taxes can be a hassle, but the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) offers a helpful tool called the Tax Withholding Estimator to assist you in managing the amount of tax that is withheld from your wages. It will help you determine if you have too much or too little tax withheld from your paycheck. The tool can also help you figure out if you need to complete a new W-4 form to submit to your employer, complete a new W-4P, or make additional payments to the IRS. It does this by estimating your annual income, the number of children you claim for the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, and other factors that may affect your yearly taxes.
Before using the Tax Withholding Estimator, it is essential to gather all necessary documents, including your W-2 from your employer, any 1099 forms received from banks and other payers, and any other required forms. Gathering as much information as possible will help you get the most accurate result from the estimator.
We would like to remind you that the information provided is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice, and we suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁸

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Healthy Living Tip

Strength Training Strategies for Every Level

If you want to build muscle mass, sometimes the simplest strategies work best. For instance, mastering the "big four" exercises - squat, deadlift, bench, and shoulder press - can provide you with a strong foundation. You can work on several major muscle groups with easy movements.
Another effective strategy is to primarily stick to dumbbells and barbells. While the fancy machines at the gym may seem tempting, mastering fundamental movements with free weights is a valuable skill in itself. Free weight and bodyweight training are some of the most efficient exercises, and they’re also the simplest.
Lastly, it's important to maintain a log and track your progress. Even doing one more rep or lifting five more pounds counts as progress. These achievements will keep you motivated and make it easier to track your progress as you get stronger.

Tip adapted from Outlift⁹

Other Things To Know

Taking care of your body weight is essential for your overall well-being, and there are various ways to manage it. One of the most important methods is to ensure that you get enough sleep. However, there are several factors that can cause overweight and obesity, such as age, genetics, diseases, medications, and the environment.

As you grow older, your body composition changes, causing the proportion of muscle to decrease and the proportion of fat to increase. This change slows down your metabolism, which can lead to weight gain. In addition, aging often results in less physical activity, which further increases the risk of weight gain.

Although genetics can cause obesity in certain disorders such as Bardet-Biedl syndrome and Prader-Willi syndrome, it's important to note that they don't always predict future health. In some cases, multiple genes may increase the susceptibility to obesity, but it doesn't occur without excess food or too little physical activity.

Certain illnesses like Cushing's disease and polycystic ovary syndrome may lead to obesity or weight gain. Similarly, some medications, such as steroids and antidepressants, can also cause weight gain. If you are struggling with weight gain, it's best to consult a doctor to determine whether an illness or medication is contributing to it or making weight loss difficult.

Environmental factors also play a significant role in weight management. A lack of sidewalks or bike lanes may prevent people from being physically active. Communities, homes, and workplaces can all influence people's health decisions. Therefore, it's crucial to create environments that encourage physical activity.

If you're looking to begin your weight loss journey, the CDC website offers a wealth of information and tips at CDC.gov.

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Weekly Riddle

It is round and has a big mouth but never speaks. It is most often in a cabinet. What is it?

Last week’s riddle: What goes in the blank below: Bob is Ken’s son. Therefore, Ken is the ______of Bob’s father. Answer: Name.

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Photo Of The Week

Yellow tram moving past yellow building in Lisbon, Portugal

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, October 3, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, October 3, 2023}

^{6. CNBC, October 4, 2023}

^{7. CNBC, October 6, 2023}

^{8. IRS.gov, April 13, 2023}

^{9. Outlift.com, July 28, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}