Weekly Market Insights: Rising Bonds Cause Market Decline

Margie Mitchell

October 23, 2023

Last week, the markets experienced a decline due to the rise in bond yields and the uncertainty surrounding the end of the Fed's rate-hike cycle, despite the positive corporate earnings results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.61%, the Standard & Poor's 500 by 2.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite index, which has been leading for most of the year, by 3.16%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, also fell by 1.67%.

Rising Yields Sink Stocks

Stocks started the week strong on the back of positive earnings news but lost momentum due to concerns over rising bond yields. As traders speculated that strong economic data could lead to a rate hike by the Fed, yields rose, causing stocks to turn lower by mid-week. This dip was further exacerbated by the 10-year Treasury yield crossing above 4.9%, marking the first time it had done so since 2007. To add to this, mortgage rates hit 8%, the highest level since mid-2000.

On Thursday, stocks further declined as the 10-year Treasury yield moved closer to 5%, and Fed Chair Powell's comments about high inflation added to the pressure. As the 10-year Treasury yield crossed above the 5% mark on Friday, and with uncertainty in the Middle East over the weekend, stocks weakened further. The week ended on a negative note, with stocks experiencing a downward trend.

Economic Strength, Housing Weakness

Last week's data release showed that the economy displayed remarkable strength. Despite concerns about a weak consumer, retail sales increased by 0.7% in September, surpassing the expected 0.3% rise. Additionally, industrial output increased by 0.3%, exceeding the forecast of a 0.1% gain.

There were also updates on the state of the housing market. Housing starts rebounded by 7.0% from August, although permits, which are an indicator of future housing starts, declined by 4.4% month-over-month. However, existing home sales were weak, decreasing by 2.0% from August and 15.4% from a year ago. It looks like existing home sales are on track to record their slowest year since 2011.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Wednesday: New Home Sales.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays. Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, October 20, 2023}

^{The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), General Electric Company (GE), Verizon Communications, Inc. (VZ), Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), General Motors Company (GM), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), 3M Company (MMM), Texas Instruments, Inc. (TXN), HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA), NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB), The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW), Danaher Corporation (DHR), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

Wednesday: The Boeing Company (BA), International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), Themo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO), General Dynamics Corporation (GD), O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY), T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)

Thursday: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Intel Corporation (INTC), Ford Motor Company (F), Mastercard, Inc. (MA), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Honeywell International, Inc. (HON)

Friday: AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Chevron Corporation (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)

^{Source: Zacks, October 20, 2023}

^{The companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

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Food For Thought

"Each day will be triumphant only when your smiles bring forth smiles from others."

– Og Mandino

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Tax Tip

Gig Economy Tax Tips

There are some essential tips to remember if you work as a gig worker:

If you work as a gig worker, there are some essential tips you need to remember. Firstly, all income is taxable, whether you receive information returns or not. It includes full-time and part-time work and also the payments made in cash.
As a gig worker, your classification is either an employee or an independent contractor. It can depend on your location, even for the same services.
Lastly, it's essential to pay the correct taxes on this income throughout the year to avoid owing additional taxes when you file. Gig employees don't have an employer withholding taxes from their paychecks, so they can either submit a new W-4 and have their employer withhold more from their pay, if they have another job as an employee, or make quarterly estimated tax payments throughout the year.

Please note that this information is not intended to replace specific individualized tax advice. We recommend discussing your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁸

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Healthy Living Tip

Boost Your Productivity With These Tips

Take regular breaks. It seems counterintuitive, but most people are more productive when they take frequent breaks.

Do the challenging tasks first. Mark Twain famously said to "eat the frog first thing in the morning," meaning you should tackle your most difficult task immediately.

Make two to-do lists: one with your weekly goals and objectives and one with your daily tasks.

Divide large projects into manageable steps. Make the things on your to-do list specific so you can continue to cross things out and make progress.

Tip adapted from Formstack⁹

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Weekly Riddle

How many cubic yards of dirt are in a hole 9' deep, 8' long, and 1' wide?

Last week’s riddle: I'm usually made by someone who does not want me. I'm usually bought by someone who does not need me. I'm usually used by someone who never sees me. What am I? Answer: A casket.

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Photo Of The Week

Fishing Boats at La Gan Beach, Vietnam

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, October 17, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, October 17, 2023}

^{6. CNN, October 18, 2023}

^{7. The Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2023}

^{8. IRS.gov, January 31, 2023}

^{9. Formstack, July 19, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}